Abbas difficult to make next move after Clinton remarks

Monday, 02 November 2009 12:26 David Harris / Xinhua
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A flurry of U.S. diplomatic activity over the last two days has left the spotlight on the Palestinian leadership, with Washington disappointed that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is currently balking at immediate peace talks with Israel.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met Abbas in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday before flying to Jerusalem to meet senior Israeli officials in Jerusalem that night.
At a news conference prior to her meeting with Netanyahu on Saturday, Clinton stressed that a full Israeli settlement freeze was at no stage a precondition to the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Analysts believe the U.S. pressure on the Palestinian leadership to resume peace talks would leave Abbas in a difficult situation, as he at the same time faces the pressure for the coming Palestinian election.

Clinton remarks "disapointing"

Until recently, both Clinton and Obama had insisted Israel begin an immediate cessation of settlement expansion in the West Bank and east Jerusalem -- two areas Israel has controlled since the 1967 War but that Palestinians hope will form the major part of a future Palestinian state.
"Negotiation by its very definition is a process of trying to meet the other's needs, while protecting your core interests and on settlements there's never been a precondition," Clinton told reporters.
She also warned that the settlements issue may never be resolved to the full satisfaction of the Palestinians, saying that "There are always demands made in any negotiation that are not going to be realized."
The settlements issue has been the stumbling block to any early resumption of peace talks.
For his part, in an interview with the Dubai-based Al-Arabiyya TV on Saturday, Abbas made it clear he still sees the settlements as the key hurdle ahead of talks.
"We're saying stop the settlement construction so we can work...we're not talking about removing the settlements at this stage," Abbas was quoted by Israel Radio as telling the TV station.
He added that an Israeli offer to halt building work for just six months and for that not to apply to east Jerusalem, 3,000 apartment buildings already approved and communal buildings is not exactly a cessation of settlement activity.
The change in tone by Washington is extremely disappointing, according to political science professor Galia Golan, who is a leading voice in the dovish Israeli movement Peace Now.
Golan argues the American backtrack puts Abbas in an extremely difficult position. The Clinton comments have returned the ball to the Palestinian court after months where it appeared the Americans and Palestinians were on the same page.
"Obama backed down on the settlement demand and left (Abbas) out to dry. I'm sure (Abbas) took the stand demanding a freeze as a precondition to talks because he had Obama's backing on it," Golan told Xinhua on Sunday.
Golan maintains Abbas cannot yield on this issue, particularly after he caved in to American pressure in September and agreed to press for a delay in the vote at the UN Human Rights Council on the Goldstone report, which said Israel may have been guilty of war crimes during its operation in and around Gaza last December and January.

Abbas Dilema

In the opinion of Ephraim Inbar, head of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, Abbas has brought much of his trouble upon himself.
"He needs to show he is a leader. He's always coming up with excuses, saying he is weak and so on. With a leader like that it’s impossible to do business," said Inbar.
According to Inbar, a major part of Abbas' problem is that he is constantly watching over his shoulder to check what his main political rival, Hamas, is up to.
With parliamentary and presidential elections slated for 2010 in the Palestinian areas, Abbas is aware that any perception that he is not standing up to Israeli or U.S. pressure could cost him dear at the polling stations.
Hamas is attacking Abbas from the political right and any kowtowing to the Israelis and Americans will be picked up by Hamas' spin doctors. That means Abbas is currently less likely to be willing to compromise on the peace front.
Inbar believes Clinton did the right thing when she said the settlement freeze was not a precondition for the resumption of peace talks.
"This was a wise step from the Obama administration, because they understand the need to jumpstart the negotiation process and that there's no place for preconditions," said Inbar.
Either way, the Obama team is now seemingly waiting to hear from Abbas, who will return from his trip to the Gulf during the week. At that stage he is slated to hold talks with his senior colleagues in the Palestinian National Authority and his Fatah party top brass in order to decide on his next move.
Clinton is spending the next day or two in Morocco where she will hold talks with Arab foreign ministers. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is likely to be high on the agenda.
U.S. Middle East special envoy George Mitchell is expected to remain in the region for the next few days. He will reportedly spend the week carrying on from where Clinton left off in trying to persuade Abbas to open talks with the Israelis.
However, the pessimism that preceded Clinton's visit to the Middle East seems likely to stay, according to the analysts, the only difference being that the pressure is now far less on the Israelis, with Abbas and his advisers now firmly at center stage.

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